El otoño está oficialmente en toda su fuerza en el pintoresco estado de Nueva York en Buffalo pero los locales no enfrentaran la lluvia el domingo tan solo para ver las hojas cambian. Aficionados de los Bills haran llover insultos sobre Tom Brady cuando los Patriots lleguen a la ciudad para un húmedo choque de división.
Según NFLWeather.com , la lluvia es probable durante toda la tarde en Buffalo con un suave viento de 10-12 mph también. La Temperatura en el interior del Estadio Ralph Wilson será de mediados de 50 para esta amarga rivalidad de la AFC Este. Hemos visto una serie de campos de juego fangosos ya esta temporada, pero la tracción no será un problema en la superficie de césped artificial de los Bills.
Tom Bradyy. Photo courtesy of USA Today.En 2013, Nueva Inglaterra venció a Buffalo en un juego con lluvia, 34-20, en casa a finales de diciembre. Los Pats se centraron en gran medida en el ataque por tierra, acumulando más de 40 acarreos entre cinco jugadores diferentes y por un total de aproximadamente 200 yardas. Pero eso no siempre ha sido el plan de juego de Nueva Inglaterra para los partidos importantes en condiciones de mal clima.
Es fácil asumir Tom Brady lleva a cuestas la ofensiva de los Patriots. En juegos con lluvia, ese no siempre es el caso. Por ejemplo, Brady promedió 39 intentos por juego la temporada pasada. Durante los últimos seis partidos bajo la lluvia, él sólo intento pases más de 30 veces en dos ocasiones. Pero eso no hace más lenta a la ofensiva de los Pats; que promedia 33 puntos por partido en ese periodo. Brady intentara repartir el balón por todo el campo, enfocandose en Gronkowski en la zona roja. Siempre y cuandp, LaGarrette Blount no acapare toda la acción cerca de la línea de gol.
Los Patriots (6-1) en juegos de lluvia son casi inmejorables. SU ultima derrota se remonta a un partido 24-23 en 2012 ante Seattle bajo una llovizna. Desde entonces, han sido impecables (5-0). Según NFLWeather.com Analytics, los Pats estan 8-2 en juegos de lluvia desde 2009 y 6-0 en casa durante ese mismo tramo .
Buffalo (4-3) ha sido una espina en el costado de Nueva Inglaterra en los últimos encuentros, dividiendo la serie de citas 2-2 desde diciembre de 2014. Pero cuando se trata de luchar contra los elementos, los Bills han sido extremadamente débiles, registrando un récord de 3-6 en juegos de lluvia desde el año 2010. Para empeorar las cosas, los Bills no han ganado un juego en el que la lluvia ha sido factor desde 2013.
No tener a LeSean McCoy durante parte del partido la semana pasada en Miami fue un duro golpe a la ofensiva de los Bills. Se espera que este de vuelta contra los Pats, pero sin su RB, Buffalo tendrá que luchar poderosamente ante una defensiva de Nueva Inglaterra que, en promedio esta temporada, ha rendido poco más de 15 puntos por juego. Promediando sólo 18,5 puntos por partido lluvia desde '10, le toca a McCoy y Tyrod Taylor hacer algunas grandes jugadas sobre la marcha con el fin de lograr la barrida de Nueva Inglaterra en esta temporada.
Con Tom Terrific vuelta bajo centro, es difícil encontrar un equipo más dominante en la liga en este momento que el de Nueva Inglaterra. Sin embargo, el único equipo que ha vencido a los Pats, hasta el momento, ha sido Buffalo. Una sorpresa en este juego de la AFC Este podría ser el pronóstico para el domingo tanto como nubes de tormenta.
Fall is officially in full force in scenic, upstate New York but locals in Buffalo won’t be braving the rain on Sunday to see the leaves change. Bills fans will be raining down insults on Tom Brady when the heated-rival Patriots storm into town for a damp, divisional clash.
According to NFLWeather.com, rain is possible throughout the entire afternoon in Buffalo with a light wind of 10-12 mph as well. Temperatures inside Ralph Wilson Stadium will be in the mid-50s for this bitter AFC East rivalry. We’ve seen a number of muddy playing fields already this season but traction won’t be an issue on the Bills’ Astroturf surface.
Tom Bradyy. Photo courtesy of USA Today.In 2013, New England beat up Buffalo in a rain game, 34-20, at home in late December. The Pats focused heavily on the rushing attack, racking up well over 40 carries between five different players and totaling roughly 200 total rushing yards. But that hasn’t always been New England’s game plan for big games in crummy conditions.
It’s easy to assume Tom Brady carries the Patriots’ offense. In rain games, that’s not always the case. For example, Brady averaged 39 passing attempts per game last season. Over his last six rain games, he’s only dropped back 30+ times twice. But that doesn’t slow down the offense, averaging 33 points per game over that span. Expect Brady to spread the ball around the field, honing in on Gronkowski in the red zone. Well, that’s if the NFL’s top bruising short yardage back, LaGarrette Blount, doesn’t hog all the goal line action.
The Patriots (6-1) in rain games are almost unbeatable. Well, they actually have been for over four years, dating back to a 24-23 loss in 2012 to Seattle in a drizzle. Since then, they’ve been a flawless 5-0. According to NFLWeather.com Historical Analytics, the Pats are 8-2 in rain games since 2009 and 6-0 at home during that stretch.
Buffalo (4-3) has been a thorn in New England’s side over the last few meetings, splitting the series 2-2 dating back to December 2014. But when it comes to battling the elements, the Bills have been extremely weak, posting a 3-6 record in rain games since 2010. To make matters worse, the Bills haven’t even won a game in the rain since 2013.
Not having LeSean McCoy at full health last week in Miami was a massive blow to the offense. Shady is expected to be back against the Pats but without the shifty RB, Buffalo will struggle mightily against a New England defense that, on average this season, has surrendered just over 15 points per game. Averaging only 18.5 points per rain game since ’10, it’s up to McCoy and Tyrod Taylor to make some big plays on the fly in order to pull off the unfathomable season sweep of New England.
With Tom Terrific back under center, it’s tough to find a more dominant and Super Bowl-worthy team in the league right now than New England. But the only team to down the Pats, thus far, this year has been Buffalo. An AFC East upset could just as easily be in the forecast as storm clouds on Sunday.
| Will’s Value Players: | ||
| QB | Marcus Mariota | $6,000 |
| RB | Jacquizz Rodgers | $4,300 |
| WR | Allen Hurns | $5,000 |
| TE | Cameron Brate | $2,900 |
After his phenomenal performance last week against Cleveland where he threw three TD’s, it’s astonishing Mariota’s price tag dropped $100 from last week. Expect similar numbers this week at home against Indy for the second-year starter. Rodgers was a revelation last week, tormenting the Carolina defense with 30 touches for over 100 yards and five receptions. Against the 49ers who surrender on average almost 175 rushing yards per game, Rodgers could put up Le’Veon Bell-like numbers. The Raiders can’t stop an aerial attacking team for the life of them which will mean big things for Jacksonville’s Allen Hurns. Across the state in Tampa Bay, Brate has been a machine since taking over the starting tight end roll. After only seeing three targets a week ago, he’ll bounce back against San Francisco’s Swiss cheese defense.
| Matt’s Value Players: | ||
| QB | Jameis Winston | $5,900 |
| RB | Duke Johnson Jr. | $3,900 |
| WR | Kenny Britt | $4,300 |
| TE | Jack Doyle | $2,500 |
At this price and expected output, plugging in Winston here gives you flexibility for roster construction. The likelihood the Browns falling behind to the Bengals is very good and a receiving back like Johnson has the higher ceiling when playing from behind. There’s a chance Pryor might miss this game which could result in more looks for Johnson. Hogging all the passes for the Rams this season, Britt has emerged as their #1 option. Anytime you can get a starter like that for this price, take it. With Dwayne Allen listed as doubtful for this week, look for Doyle to be a major part of the Colts offense. This will be a high scoring game and at this price, he’s a steal.
Will’s Pick: BAL +1 @ NYJ
The Jets’ offense is a sinking ship, and now that Geno Smith is in control, scoring double digits might be too tall an order let alone beating a solid Baltimore side. The Ravens won’t even need the point in this one.
Matt’s Pick: TB -2 @ SF
Tampa has the potent offense and San Francisco has the poor defense. It’s that simple. Buccaneers should run away with this one (pun intended for Chip). Take this one to the bank.
| Will’s Value Players: | ||
| QB | Marcus Mariota | $6,000 |
| RB | Jacquizz Rodgers | $4,300 |
| WR | Allen Hurns | $5,000 |
| TE | Cameron Brate | $2,900 |
After his phenomenal performance last week against Cleveland where he threw three TD’s, it’s astonishing Mariota’s price tag dropped $100 from last week. Expect similar numbers this week at home against Indy for the second-year starter. Rodgers was a revelation last week, tormenting the Carolina defense with 30 touches for over 100 yards and five receptions. Against the 49ers who surrender on average almost 175 rushing yards per game, Rodgers could put up Le’Veon Bell-like numbers. The Raiders can’t stop an aerial attacking team for the life of them which will mean big things for Jacksonville’s Allen Hurns. Across the state in Tampa Bay, Brate has been a machine since taking over the starting tight end roll. After only seeing three targets a week ago, he’ll bounce back against San Francisco’s Swiss cheese defense.
| Matt’s Value Players: | ||
| QB | Jameis Winston | $5,900 |
| RB | Duke Johnson Jr. | $3,900 |
| WR | Kenny Britt | $4,300 |
| TE | Jack Doyle | $2,500 |
At this price and expected output, plugging in Winston here gives you flexibility for roster construction. The likelihood the Browns falling behind to the Bengals is very good and a receiving back like Johnson has the higher ceiling when playing from behind. There’s a chance Pryor might miss this game which could result in more looks for Johnson. Hogging all the passes for the Rams this season, Britt has emerged as their #1 option. Anytime you can get a starter like that for this price, take it. With Dwayne Allen listed as doubtful for this week, look for Doyle to be a major part of the Colts offense. This will be a high scoring game and at this price, he’s a steal.
Will’s Pick: BAL +1 @ NYJ
The Jets’ offense is a sinking ship, and now that Geno Smith is in control, scoring double digits might be too tall an order let alone beating a solid Baltimore side. The Ravens won’t even need the point in this one.
Matt’s Pick: TB -2 @ SF
Tampa has the potent offense and San Francisco has the poor defense. It’s that simple. Buccaneers should run away with this one (pun intended for Chip). Take this one to the bank.
Quarterbacks
Start ‘em: Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston
Over the last four consecutive weeks, the dreadful Browns D has allowed opposing QB’s to toss for at least three touchdowns a game. With clear skies in Sunday’s forecast, expect Dalton to eviscerate the in-state rival Browns’ atrocious secondary.
Playing against the 49ers means Winston’s fantasy floor is very high this week. A fast paced game means more offensive plays and creates more opportunities to score points. A great streaming option if your QB is on a bye this week.
Sit ‘em: Carson Wentz, Alex Smith
Last week against Washington, Wentz was sacked five times and completed only half of his passes. If Philly’s offensive line doesn’t get it together against Minnesota’s stout D that only surrenders 12 points per game this season, another poor performance by the Wentz is in the cards. Winds could kick up to 15-20 mph which could also create some problems for the rookie.
Ok, hear me out… Yes, he is at home against the Saints, but keep this in mind... The Saints are more prone to allowing rushing TD’s in the red zone as opposed to giving it up thru the air. Temper expectations here.
Running Backs
Start ‘em: Jacquizz Rodgers, Spencer Ware
After seeing what Shady McCoy did the 49ers did last week, I can see Rodgers racking up good numbers here. Head Coach Dirk Koetter will always ride the running back no matter who it is. Until Doug Martin returns from injury, keep Rodgers starting in your lineup.
Even with Jamaal Charles back, Ware out touched the veteran RB last week 26 to 11 and is still very much an important factor of Andy Reid’s offense. Heading into week seven’s bout against a New Orleans defense that allows 117 rushing yards per game, Ware is a must-start and with wind expected to be a factor, Reid will prefer the traditional ground and pound attack.
Sit ‘em: Jay Ajayi, Lamar Miller
Expect Ajayi to come back down to earth this week at home to Buffalo. That, along with the fact Arian Foster is a week healthier, I can’t expect a large point total here this week. Wind and rain could end up being a factor here as well.
With only one rushing touchdown under his belt, it’s safe to say the expectations set for Miller in Houston this season were exceedingly too high. He’ll have his occasional 100-yard performances but against Denver’s lights out defense, there’s a minimal chance he’ll hit triple digits on Monday night.
Allen Robinson. Photo courtesy of USA Today.Wide Receivers
Start ‘em: Brandon Marshall, Allen Robinson
Geno Smith, Fitzmagic, PeeWee Herman, or Carlton Banks.. It could be anyone under center but regardless of which clown is taking snaps, Marshall will get his looks and targets regardless. Expect a Brandon Marshall kinda game here.
Robinson, who was taken in most fantasy drafts in the third round, is a sleeping giant just waiting to put up big numbers against a sorry defensive unit. A visit from Oakland’s awful secondary that gives up over 312 passing yards per game might just do the trick. With clear skies in the forecast, Blake Bortles has perfect passing conditions to reignite his chemistry with his top wide out.
Sit ‘em: DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Floyd
At this point in the season, Hopkins has been touchdown dependent. It gets worse this week when they arrive in Denver for a matchup nightmare. Hopkins was probably your first round pick, but sad to say he might not perform this week.
Aside from future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona receivers can’t be trusted. Against Seattle’s stellar defense and with Carson Palmer dinged up from last week, Floyd’s two targets from last week could be an indication he’s being phased-out of the Cardinal’s offensive game plans.
Tight Ends
Start ‘em: Gary Barnidge, Hunter Henry
Finally, Barnidge is once again a key factor in Cleveland’s [limited] passing attack. Over the last four weeks, Barnidge’s targets-per-game has leaped to 6.5 after averaging just over three a game following the first two weeks. With the Browns expected to be trailing the Bengals and forced to play catch-up, Cleveland will be compelled to abandon the run.
Henry’s production has been unbelievably consistent over the last month or so. Atlanta has two rookie LB’s and one rookie strong safety starting. Expect a lot of points put up in this game and Henry will be a part of it.
Sit ‘em: Dennis Pitta, Zach Ertz
The Jets can be beat through the air but with Flacco not 100% and this most likely being a low scoring game, the ceiling is low here for Pitta.
Since returning from injury, fantasy and Philly fans alike have been waiting for Ertz to live up to his hype. Well, both parties are still playing the waiting game and not much is expected to chance against Minnesota’s tenacious defense. Wind could be a factor on Sunday and if the Viking’s D-line causes the same problems Washington’s did last week (five sacks), Philly may need Ertz to help out in pass protection.
Quarterbacks
Start ‘em: Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston
Over the last four consecutive weeks, the dreadful Browns D has allowed opposing QB’s to toss for at least three touchdowns a game. With clear skies in Sunday’s forecast, expect Dalton to eviscerate the in-state rival Browns’ atrocious secondary.
Playing against the 49ers means Winston’s fantasy floor is very high this week. A fast paced game means more offensive plays and creates more opportunities to score points. A great streaming option if your QB is on a bye this week.
Sit ‘em: Carson Wentz, Alex Smith
Last week against Washington, Wentz was sacked five times and completed only half of his passes. If Philly’s offensive line doesn’t get it together against Minnesota’s stout D that only surrenders 12 points per game this season, another poor performance by the Wentz is in the cards. Winds could kick up to 15-20 mph which could also create some problems for the rookie.
Ok, hear me out… Yes, he is at home against the Saints, but keep this in mind... The Saints are more prone to allowing rushing TD’s in the red zone as opposed to giving it up thru the air. Temper expectations here.
Running Backs
Start ‘em: Jacquizz Rodgers, Spencer Ware
After seeing what Shady McCoy did the 49ers did last week, I can see Rodgers racking up good numbers here. Head Coach Dirk Koetter will always ride the running back no matter who it is. Until Doug Martin returns from injury, keep Rodgers starting in your lineup.
Even with Jamaal Charles back, Ware out touched the veteran RB last week 26 to 11 and is still very much an important factor of Andy Reid’s offense. Heading into week seven’s bout against a New Orleans defense that allows 117 rushing yards per game, Ware is a must-start and with wind expected to be a factor, Reid will prefer the traditional ground and pound attack.
Sit ‘em: Jay Ajayi, Lamar Miller
Expect Ajayi to come back down to earth this week at home to Buffalo. That, along with the fact Arian Foster is a week healthier, I can’t expect a large point total here this week. Wind and rain could end up being a factor here as well.
With only one rushing touchdown under his belt, it’s safe to say the expectations set for Miller in Houston this season were exceedingly too high. He’ll have his occasional 100-yard performances but against Denver’s lights out defense, there’s a minimal chance he’ll hit triple digits on Monday night.
Allen Robinson. Photo courtesy of USA Today.Wide Receivers
Start ‘em: Brandon Marshall, Allen Robinson
Geno Smith, Fitzmagic, PeeWee Herman, or Carlton Banks.. It could be anyone under center but regardless of which clown is taking snaps, Marshall will get his looks and targets regardless. Expect a Brandon Marshall kinda game here.
Robinson, who was taken in most fantasy drafts in the third round, is a sleeping giant just waiting to put up big numbers against a sorry defensive unit. A visit from Oakland’s awful secondary that gives up over 312 passing yards per game might just do the trick. With clear skies in the forecast, Blake Bortles has perfect passing conditions to reignite his chemistry with his top wide out.
Sit ‘em: DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Floyd
At this point in the season, Hopkins has been touchdown dependent. It gets worse this week when they arrive in Denver for a matchup nightmare. Hopkins was probably your first round pick, but sad to say he might not perform this week.
Aside from future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona receivers can’t be trusted. Against Seattle’s stellar defense and with Carson Palmer dinged up from last week, Floyd’s two targets from last week could be an indication he’s being phased-out of the Cardinal’s offensive game plans.
Tight Ends
Start ‘em: Gary Barnidge, Hunter Henry
Finally, Barnidge is once again a key factor in Cleveland’s [limited] passing attack. Over the last four weeks, Barnidge’s targets-per-game has leaped to 6.5 after averaging just over three a game following the first two weeks. With the Browns expected to be trailing the Bengals and forced to play catch-up, Cleveland will be compelled to abandon the run.
Henry’s production has been unbelievably consistent over the last month or so. Atlanta has two rookie LB’s and one rookie strong safety starting. Expect a lot of points put up in this game and Henry will be a part of it.
Sit ‘em: Dennis Pitta, Zach Ertz
The Jets can be beat through the air but with Flacco not 100% and this most likely being a low scoring game, the ceiling is low here for Pitta.
Since returning from injury, fantasy and Philly fans alike have been waiting for Ertz to live up to his hype. Well, both parties are still playing the waiting game and not much is expected to chance against Minnesota’s tenacious defense. Wind could be a factor on Sunday and if the Viking’s D-line causes the same problems Washington’s did last week (five sacks), Philly may need Ertz to help out in pass protection.
El huracán Matthew azotó la costa este y las partes de Georgia, Florida y las Carolinas todavia sufren las consecuencias. Por desgracia, no parece que las tormentas del Caribe de finales de verano han terminado de causar problemas en la NFL todavía, específicamente para la AFC Este esta semana cuando los Miami Dolphins reciban a los Bills de Buffalo.
LeSean McCoy. Photo courtesy of USA Today.Según NFLWeather.com , se espera que un viento de 20 mph se arremoline en el interior del estadio Hard Rock para el partido del domingo con temperaturas persistentes en los 70s. A partir del martes, hubo un pequeño porcentaje de posibilidades de precipitación, sin embargo, se prevé que la tormenta más proxima al este de las Bahamas se convierta en ciclón en los próximos días y podría forzar una tormenta al noroeste de Miami y la costa sureste.
Los Dolphins (2-4) vienen de un desmantelar un equipo de Pittsburgh Steelers bien redondeado y parecen estar por doblar la esquina después de un comienzo pésimo. Si son capaces de mantener el impulso ante Buffalo, Miami vovlera a estar en la pelea dentro de la AFC Este luego de un pésimo inicio de 2-5. Pero la historia no es un buen augurio para los 'Phins que tienen un registro de 2-5 en juegos con lluvia desde 2009 y no han ganado un partido en la lluvia en el país desde 2011. Irónicamente, ese partido fue una victoria ante los Bills por 35-8.
El quarterback Ryan Tannehill, 0-4 en su último puñado de juegos bajo la lluvia, sólo promedia 194 yardas por partido, pero su peor estadistica en partidos con mal tiempo es que recibe un promedio de 3,75 capturas. Contra una defensa de Buffalo que ya sumó 20 capturas esta temporada (segunda mejor en la NFL), las rutas cortas son cruciales para el éxito aéreo. En lo que va de esta temporada parece ser un show unipersonal en términos de recepciones con un Jarvis Landry que promedia aproximadamente 10 recepciones por partido. DeVante Parker y el ala cerrada Jordan Cameron desesperadamente necesitan tener más impacto ofensivo y afirmarse más en el juego. ¿Qué mejor momento para hacerlo que en un fundamental juego de división bajo la lluvia?
Pero los Dolphins pueden no necesitar el brazo de Tannehill luego de la sensacional actuación de Jay Ajayi el fin de semana pasado contra Pittsburgh, donde corrió por más de 200 yardas en 25 acareos y encontró la zona de anotación dos veces. Se esperaba el regreso de Arian Foster, pero puede ser que Ajayi se haya ganado el puesto de titular durante al menos un juego más, mientras que Foster continúa su rehabilitación.
Al igual que Miami, los Bills (4-2) no han tenido mucho éxito recientemente en la lluvia. Buffalo no ha ganado un partido en la lluvia desde 2013, cuando vencieron convincentemente a Miami, 19-0, y de acuerdo con la analitica historica de NFLWeather.com, tienen un registro de 3-6 en la lluvia desde el 2010. El hombre que necesitan para revertir esta tendencia es su caballo de batalla, LeSean McCoy, quien corrió para más de 100 yardas en tres de sus últimos cuatro juegos. McCoy se ha re-establecido nuevamente entre la élite de la NFL y si la lluvia y el viento afectan el juego aéreo, no sería una sorpresa si Shady obtiene más de 30 acarreos.
El ataque aereo de los Bills es actualmente el número 31 en la liga y debe anticipar que Miami llenara la caja e intentara forzar a Tyrod Taylor a ganar el partido con su brazo. Idealmente, Buffalo preferiría los acarreos (especialmente contra una defensa que rinde 147 yardas terrestres por juego), y con fuerte viento pronósticado van a necesitar a que Taylor haga un par de jugadas por su cuenta. Ya sea con las piernas o siendo más preciso con la pelota, la falta de Sammy Watkins ya no es una excusa legítima para la falta de producción. Ahora es el momento para que Robert Woods demuestre que es capaz de ser protagonista.
El factor X en este duelo de la AFC Este podrían ser los pateadores, y tanto Dan Carpenter (BUF) como Andrew Franks (MIA) han estado lejos de ser perfectos. Carpenter esta 4-de-6 a partir de 40 yardas esta temporada, mientras que Franks esta 3-de-5 entre 20 y 29 yardas y 0 de 1 a partir de 50. Con brutal viento y la lluvia siendo una posibilidad, los puntos podrían escasear en Miami el domingo.
Hurricane Matthew absolutely pummeled the east coast and corners of Georgia, Florida and the Carolinas are still picking up the pieces. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear that the late-summer Caribbean storms are done causing problems on NFL Sunday’s just yet, specifically for the AFC East this week when the Miami Dolphins host the Buffalo Bills.
LeSean McCoy. Photo courtesy of USA Today.According to NFLWeather.com, a 20-mph breeze is expected to be swirling inside Hard Rock Stadium for Sunday’s game with temperatures lingering in the upper-70s. As of Tuesday, there was a small percentage chance of precipitation, however, the most recent tropical storm east of the Bahamas is projected to become a cyclone in the next few days and could easily force a rainstorm northwest towards Miami and the southeastern coast.
The Dolphins (2-4) are coming off a dismantling of a well-rounded Pittsburgh Steelers team and appear to be turning a corner after a lousy start. If they can keep momentum going into week seven’s bout with Buffalo, Miami is right back in AFC contention instead of a dismal 2-5 start. But history doesn’t bode well for the ‘Phins who post a 2-5 record in rain games since 2009 and haven’t won a rain game at home since 2011. Ironically, that was a 35-8 drumming of the Bills.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill, 0-4 in his last handful of rain game starts, only averages 194 passing yards per game but his most concerning weather-related stat is he’s sacked on average 3.75 times per game. Against a Buffalo D that’s already tallied 20 sacks this season (2nd best in the NFL), quick drop backs and shorter routes are crucial to aerial success. So far this season it’s felt like a one-man show in terms of receiving threats as star wideout Jarvis Landry has averaged roughly 10 targets a game. Fellow WR DeVante Parker and tight end Jordan Cameron desperately need to have more of an offensive impact and assert themselves more in this offense. What better time to do so than a pivotal divisional game in the rain?
But the ‘Phins may not need to relay on Tannehill’s arm following Jay Ajayi’s sensational performance on the ground last weekend against Pittsburgh where he amassed over 200 yards on 25 touches and found the end zone twice. Arian Foster was slated to return but Ajayi may have earned himself the starting role for at least one more game while Foster continues to rehab.
Like Miami, the Bills (4-2) haven’t had much success recently in the rain either. Buffalo hasn’t won a rain game since 2013, where they convincingly crushed Miami, 19-0, and according to the NFLWeather.com Historical Analytics, post a 3-6 record in the rain since ’10. The man they need to step up and reverse this trend is their coveted workhorse, LeSean McCoy, who’s rushed for over 100 yards in three of his last four games. McCoy has reestablished himself as an elite back in the NFL and if rain and wind affect the passing game, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Shady gets 30+ touches.
The Bills have a passing attacked currently ranked 31st in the league and should anticipate Miami stacking the box and forcing Tyrod Taylor to beat them with his inconsistent arm. Ideally, Buffalo would prefer to ground and pound (especially against a defense that surrenders 147 rushing yards per game) but with heavy wind in the forecast they’ll need Taylor to make a few plays on his own. Whether that be with his legs or being more accurate with the ball, missing Sammy Watkins is no longer a legit excuse for lack of production. Now is the time for Robert Woods to prove he’s capable of carrying the starting role.
The x-factor in this AFC East matchup could ultimately be the kicking game, where both Dan Carpenter (BUF) and Andrew Franks (MIA) have been far from flawless. Carpenter is 4-of-6 from 40+ yards this season while Franks is only 3-of-5 from between 20-29 yards and 0-for-1 from 50+. With brutal wind and rain a possibility, points could be at a premium in Miami on Sunday.
| Jugadores de Will: | ||
| QB | Carson Wentz | $6,000 |
| RB | James Starks | $3,400 |
| WR | Tavon Austin | $3,900 |
| TE | Jacob Tamme | $2,700 |
Por un precio de $ 6.000, Wentz es una compra frugal con el potencial para poner números de primera línea contra un débil Washington. Jugar a Wentz por sobre, por ejemplo, Russell Wilson, ahorra casi $ 1,000 que pueden ser utilizados en un jugador de FLEX de mayor nivel. Lacy no ha estado practicando toda la semana y si él está fuera para el partido del domingo, Stark será el caballo de batalla y un RB titular por menos de $ 3500 es un robo. Es casi imposible encontrar un WR número uno por menos de $ 4.000, aparte de Tavon Austin que también gana puntos en los equipos especiales. Tamme ha sido de éxito o sequia como TE esta temporada, pero por el precio y por la lluvia en el pronóstico, Ryan podría utilizarlo más de lo habitual.
| Jugadores de Matt: | ||
| QB | Marcus Mariota | $6,100 |
| RB | Gio Bernard | $4,600 |
| WR | Robert Woods | $4,200 |
| TE | Zach Miller | $3,800 |
$ 6.100, es un gran precio para un QB que juega en casa contra los Browns. Han sido desmenuzados por pase durante toda la temporada y espero que nada cambie esta semana. A este precio, será más fácil incluir a otro jugador de alto precio en su alineación. Para Gio, hay una buena probabilidad de que los Pats arranquen anotando y con la lesión en el pecho de Jeremy Hill, es probable que se vean más acarreos para Bernard. Roberts Woods es ahora el el principal receptor y justo estara jugando en un juego de alto vuelo esta semana. El valor aquí es demasiado grande com para no considerarlo. Desde la semana 3, Zach Miller no ha anotado menos de 12 puntos de fantasy por juego. Desde entonces, el recibe un promedio de siete pases por partido. Con un piso asi de alto, este precio es genial.
Will’s Pick: NO +3 vs CAR
La ofensiva de New Orleans ha vuelto como una de las unidades de élite de la NFC por haber anotado menos de 32 puntos solo una vez esta temporada y un con promedio de más de 300 yardas por juego. Contra una unidad defensiva disminuida en Carolina que permite 27 puntos por partido y que dejo que Matt Ryan tenga un día de campo contra ellos en el Georgia Dome hace dos semanas, hay una posibilidad de que Drew Brees pueda poner números heroicos en casa.
Matt’s Pick: GB -4 vs DAL
Green Bay obligará a los Cowboys a lanzar pronto y con frecuencia. No veo a Dez jugar en este juego lo que significa que los Packers seran capaces de alejarse temprano en la segunda mitad. Dak vuelve a bajar aquí a la Tierra.
| Will’s Value Players: | ||
| QB | Carson Wentz | $6,000 |
| RB | James Starks | $3,400 |
| WR | Tavon Austin | $3,900 |
| TE | Jacob Tamme | $2,700 |
For a $6,000 price tag, Wentz is a frugal buy with the potential to put up top-tier fantasy numbers against a weak Washington defense. Starting Wentz over, say, Russell Wilson, saves almost $1,000 that can be used on an upgraded FLEX play. Lacy hasn’t been practicing all week and if he’s out for Sunday’s game, Starks will be the workhorse and a starting RB for under $3,500 is a steal. It’s next to impossible to find a team’s number one WR for under $4,000, aside from LA’s Tavon Austin who also earns special teams points too. Tamme has been a hit or miss TE this season but for the price and with rain in the forecast, Ryan might be utilizing his safety blanket more than usual.
| Matt’s Value Players: | ||
| QB | Marcus Mariota | $6,100 |
| RB | Gio Bernard | $4,600 |
| WR | Robert Woods | $4,200 |
| TE | Zach Miller | $3,800 |
Sitting at $6,100, this is a great price for a QB who is at home against the Browns D. They have been shredded by the pass all season long and I expect nothing less this week. At this price, it will be easier to fit a high price player into your lineup. For Gio, there is a good chance the Pats go up in this one and with the lingering chest injury Jeremy Hill has, more touches could be headed Bernard’s way. Roberts Woods is now the top receiver and he just so happens to be playing in a high-paced game this week. Value here is too great not the consider him. Since week 3, Zach Miller hasn’t scored less than 12 points in fantasy per game. Since then, he’s seeing almost seven targets on average per game. With a high floor, this price is great.
Will’s Pick: NO +3 vs CAR
The New Orleans offense has returned as one of the NFC’s elite scoring units by having scored under 32 points only once this season and averaging over 300 passing yards per game. Against a diminishing defensive unit in Carolina that surrenders 27 points a game and let Matt Ryan have a field day against them in the Georgia Dome two weeks ago, there’s a chance Drew Brees can put up heroic numbers at home and down a potentially Cam-less Carolina team.
Matt’s Pick: GB -4 vs DAL
Green Bay will force the Cowboys to throw early and often. I do not see Dez playing in this problematic weather-free game which means the Pack should be able to pull away early in the second half. Dak comes back down to Earth here.
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